Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks and the United States South Caucasus Strategy
- Sep 8, 2025
- 4 min read
Updated: 23 hours ago
By Omer Niazi | September 2024 | This research report was funded by the United States Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research and authored in partnership with the Middle East Institute.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers during U.S.-hosted peace negotiations in 2023. Photo by Celal Güneş/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
"Bleak political realities and flashpoints of conflict often paradoxically create opportunities for diplomatic breakthroughs. The art of foreign policy statecraft lies in seizing these moments and transforming crises into catalysts for positive change."
What do the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks mean for the future of the South Caucasus, and how should the United States respond to a region being reshaped by war, shifting alliances, and great power competition? As Russia remains focused on its war in Ukraine, Turkey expands its regional influence, Iran watches connectivity debates with concern, and Armenia and Azerbaijan reassess their long-term strategic positions, the South Caucasus has entered a consequential period of transition.
This research report examines the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, recent security developments, and the current balance of power in the South Caucasus. It argues that while the present round of negotiations is unlikely to produce a comprehensive peace agreement in the near term, a peace framework agreement could still become a major diplomatic step forward. Such an agreement could reduce the risk of renewed conflict, create space for future normalization, and open the door to a potential Armenia-Turkey rapprochement.
The report further argues that Armenia-Turkey normalization may become one of the most consequential outcomes of the peace process. For Armenia, normalization with Turkey could reduce dependence on Russia, expand economic opportunities, and strengthen its regional position. For Azerbaijan, a framework agreement could help consolidate recent gains, improve its international standing, and support its broader ambitions as a regional energy and connectivity hub. For the United States, these developments present an opportunity to support regional stability, counter Russian influence, and shape the emerging post-conflict order in the South Caucasus.
Drawing on field research and approximately 35 interviews with senior government officials, policymakers, and experts in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United States, the report provides a forward-looking assessment of U.S. strategy in the region. It recommends that Washington actively support the peace process, prepare for the regional consequences of a post-framework scenario, maintain constructive engagement with Azerbaijan, encourage Armenia-Turkey normalization, and pursue a broader strategy aimed at balancing power among South Caucasus states.
Author
Omer Niazi is the Founder and President of the Council on International Law, Order, and Security. With over ten years of experience in both the public and private sectors, his work centers on governance, rule of law, and international security.
He has worked with the U.S. Civilian Research and Development Foundation and US Department of State's Office of International Security and Non-proliferation on initiatives aimed at countering the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), with a specific focus on nuclear non-proliferation. Omer is a Research Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, a non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and US Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) where his research focuses on United States foreign policy towards Eastern Europe and Eurasia. He also conducts research on security and political development of the South Caucasus region at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
He has formerly researched with the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). He was also a Policy Fellow at the Fund for Constitutional Government and the Financial Accountability and Corporate Transparency Coalition.
Omer holds a Master’s Degree in Public Administration from the Harvard Kennedy School, where he was also a Mason Public Policy Fellow. He holds a B.A. in Public Administration and also a Master’s in Management from the UNINETTUNO University. Omer’s views have been published by AEI, ISW, MEI, CIPE, the National Interest, and the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School.
© 2025 All rights reserved. This research report was authored under the Middle East Institute’s Black Sea Title VIII Fellowship, funded by the United States Department of State, and is hosted by the Council on International Law, Order, and Security for research, educational, and policy engagement purposes.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means — electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise — without prior written permission from the author or the appropriate rights holder.
To cite this report, use the following reference:Niazi, O. (2024). Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks and the United States South Caucasus Strategy. Middle East Institute Black Sea Program.
The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of the Council on International Law, Order, and Security, the Middle East Institute, the United States Department of State, or their respective staff, fellows, officers, or affiliates.