RESEARCH PAPER
Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks and the United States South Caucasus Strategy
How a moment of bleak political realities produce a diplomatic opening, and what it would take to seize it
Omer Niazi
September 8, 2025
OMER NIAZI is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Council and a Visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers during U.S.-hosted peace negotiations in 2023. (Celal Güneş/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
"Bleak political realities and flashpoints of conflict often paradoxically create opportunities for diplomatic breakthroughs. The art of foreign policy statecraft lies in seizing these moments and transforming crises into catalysts for positive change."
What do peace talks between Armeni and Azerbaijan peace mean for the future of the South Caucasus, and how should the United States respond to a region being reshaped by war, shifting alliances, and great power competition? As Russia remains focused on its war in Ukraine, Turkey expands its regional influence, Iran watches connectivity debates with concern, and Armenia and Azerbaijan reassess their long-term strategic positions, the South Caucasus has entered a consequential period of transition.
This research report examines the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, recent security developments, and the current balance of power in the South Caucasus. It argues that while the present round of negotiations is unlikely to produce a comprehensive peace agreement in the near term, a peace framework agreement could still become a major diplomatic step forward. Such an agreement could reduce the risk of renewed conflict, create space for future normalization, and open the door to a potential Armenia-Turkey rapprochement.
The report further argues that Armenia-Turkey normalization may become one of the most consequential outcomes of the peace process. For Armenia, normalization with Turkey could reduce dependence on Russia, expand economic opportunities, and strengthen its regional position. For Azerbaijan, a framework agreement could help consolidate recent gains, improve its international standing, and support its broader ambitions as a regional energy and connectivity hub. For the United States, these developments present an opportunity to support regional stability, counter Russian influence, and shape the emerging post-conflict order in the South Caucasus.
Drawing on field research and approximately 35 interviews with senior government officials, policymakers, and experts in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United States, the report provides a forward-looking assessment of U.S. strategy in the region. It recommends that Washington actively support the peace process, prepare for the regional consequences of a post-framework scenario, maintain constructive engagement with Azerbaijan, encourage Armenia-Turkey normalization, and pursue a broader strategy aimed at balancing power among South Caucasus states.
Disclosure: This research was funded by the United States Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research and authored in partnership with the Middle East Institute. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Council on International Law, Order, and Security, the Middle East Institute, the United States Department of State, or the United States Government.
To cite this article: Niazi, Omer. (2024). Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks and the United States South Caucasus Strategy. Middle East Institute Black Sea Program.
Copyright in this article is retained by the author. Published by the Council on International Law, Order, and Security. Quotation with attribution is welcome; republication in full requires permission. See our Terms of Use.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of the Council, its staff, or its Board of Advisors.
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