Tehran Increases Local Security and Strengthens Ties to Venezuela Amid Economic Crisis

In an assessment published by the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project, authored by Nicholas Carl and Kyra Rauschenbach with contributions from Omer Niazi, the authors traced how Iran's deepening economic crisis was shaping its behaviour both abroad and at home.

The rial had lost more than half its value over the course of 2020, and the government had injected billions into the economy to steady it. That mattered politically as much as financially: Iran's two most serious recent protest waves — in the winter of 2017–18, and again after the fuel price rises of November 2019 — had begun over economic grievances and turned quickly against the system itself.

Abroad, the authors argued, Venezuela offered a way to rebuild reserves. Tehran had agreed in April to supply fuel and the technical expertise needed to restart Venezuelan energy infrastructure in exchange for $500 million in gold. Thirteen Iranian tankers had made the crossing since May, four of which the United States intercepted in August. The assessment suggested Iran had also offered help mobilizing paramilitary support and tightening control of Venezuela's information environment — assistance far harder for Washington to interdict than a cargo of fuel — and that military hardware could follow once the UN arms embargo lapsed.

At home, the response was containment. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps deployed Basij patrols in Tehran and in Khuzestan, the Arab-majority province with a long history of unrest, to break up gatherings before they formed — part of a wider strategy of raising the security presence at neighborhood level.

Read the full assessment at the Critical Threats Project →