OPINION
Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Talks: The Status Quo and an Emerging Diplomatic Breakthrough
Three deadlocks stand between a framework agreement and a settlement: a constitution, a border, and a corridor
Omer Niazi
August 30, 2024
OMER NIAZI is President and Chief Executive Officer of the Council and a Visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, European Council President Charles Michel, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at EU-mediated talks in Brussels. (KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AFP via Getty Images)
Bleak political realities and flashpoints of conflict often paradoxically create opportunities for diplomatic breakthroughs. The art of foreign policy statecraft lies in seizing these moments and transforming crises into catalysts for change.
Azerbaijan's takeover of Karabakh in September 2023, while a disruptive event, has opened the window for renewed dialogue to peacefully resolve the longstanding tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While the ongoing negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive peace deal in the near term, they could alter the strategic calculus of key actors in the region. The most likely and consequential outcome of the talks will be a peace framework agreement that could pave the way for Armenian-Turkish normalization. A rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey, in turn, could prove to be the linchpin in rebalancing the regional status quo, making a future peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan more probable.
The present iteration of peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan began in the aftermath of the 2020 Second Karabakh War. Despite increased high-level meetings under Russian and international mediation until early 2023, negotiations failed to yield substantial progress, in part due to Armenia’s delayed recognition and acceptance of the new balance of power that had emerged in the aftermath of the 2020 conflict in Baku’s favor. Yerevan’s gradual adjustment to this shifted reality, among other factors, ultimately preceded Azerbaijan’s takeover of the whole of Karabakh in September of 2023. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government in Armenia was by then convinced of the shift in the regional balance of power and entered bilateral negotiations with Azerbaijan — this time with increased compromises, including indirectly conceding that Karabakh was lost.
While there has been notable progress in the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks, the negotiations are still far from achieving a comprehensive peace settlement. This is due to several major deadlocks that will require tough concessions and are likely to be time-consuming to resolve. These deadlocks include demands for changes to Armenia’s constitution by Azerbaijan, disagreements over border delimitation, and the establishment of a new Zangezur corridor — an overland transit route that would connect mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave via southern Armenia.
Disclosure: This article was written as part of research funded by the United States Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research and conducted in partnership with the Middle East Institute, where the author holds a research affiliation. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Council on International Law, Order, and Security, the Middle East Institute, the United States Department of State, or the United States Government.
To cite this article: Niazi, O. (2024, August 30). Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Talks: The Status Quo and an Emerging Diplomatic Breakthrough. Middle East Institute.
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The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of the Council, its staff, or its Board of Advisors.
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